PB review 2017 & targets for 2018

At last, after two years in the running semi-wilderness, 2017 was a resoundingly successful year. The dip in mileage during November and December was not due to injury and the lesser dip in April was simply post marathon recovery.

2017 was a resoundingly successful year.

I participated in 20 parkrun 5k events this year, across 5 different venues, and ran most of them competitively. At Dulwich parkrun in August, I improved my longstanding 2014 5k PB of 18:53 to 18:50. In the next two months, I continued to record excellent times – 18:52, 18:54 and 18:52 – every time I ran a parkrun competitively.

Outside parkrunning, I participated in my first marathon, which was a great experience if not an impressive performance, and I improved my 10000m PB twice such that my track time is now on a par with my road PB and the targets I have set for both now seem genuinely realistic. On my 52nd birthday, 1st October, I ran the Kingston Half marathon with the aim of setting a new PB, faster than the now disqualified 86:29 I set at Brighton in 2015. Coming as it did during the best three months of my year – August to October – I was initially somewhat disappointed to run ‘only’ 86:41. But, since Brighton 2015 was officially 146 metres short, it is clear that this is a better performance by any measure. I will definitely be returning next year and hope to be ready to attempt sub 85 minutes.

So, once again my targets for 2018 are unchanged from last year. This year I really want to get on the track and improve my middle distance PBs, but having entered another marathon is not exactly conducive to that! On that note, last year’s Brighton Marathon was hard enough that, at this moment, notwithstanding that I am running strong I think it is unlikely I will commit to my sub 3:10 target time from the gun.

	2017 season				2018 season
event	opening PB	target	events	improvement	target
800m	2:25.9	2:19.9	—	—	2:19.9
1500m	5:18.2	4:49.9	—	—	4:49.9
mile	5:31.7	4:59.9	—	—	4:59.9
3000m	—	9:59.9	—	—	9:59.9
5000m	19:01.53	17:59.99	—	—	17:59.99
5k	18:53	17:59	20	August 18:50	17:59
5 mile	31:28	29:59	—	—	29:59
10000m	40:41	38:29.99	2	June 40:28.20, September 39:05.53	38:29.99
10k	39:04	38:29	1	—	38:29
10 mile	66:41	64:59	—	—	64:59
half marathon	86:29	84:59	1	October 86:41	84:59
marathon	—	3:09:59	1	April 3:47:58	3:09:59

I am still in denial about getting older and so I am holding out for absolute PBs – that is improvements in my best times. However, for the sake of completeness shall we say, I have listed my age grade (AG) bests and am particularly hopeful that 2018 will see the achievement of my longstanding goal of an 80% age grade.

event	time PB	AGe when set	AG of time PB when set	AG PB	age when AG PB set
800m	2:25.9	48	78.32%	same	—
1500m	5:18.2	48	72.77%	same	—
mile	5:31.7	48	75.50%	same	—
3000m	—	—	—	—	—
5000m	19:01.53	49	72.21%	same	—
5k	18:50	51	78.94%	79.42% (18:52)	52
5 mile	31:28	49	76.91%	same	—
10000m	39:05.53	51	77.64%	same	—
10k	39:04	49	77.94%	78.20% (39:54)	52
10 mile	66:41	48	74.33%	same	—
half marathon	86:41	52	78.58%	same	—
marathon	3:47:58	51	61.73%	same	—

 

PB review 2016 & targets for 2017

My running in 2016 ended on a relative high. This is probably better phrased as, “My perception of running in 2016 was only saved from being ‘a complete fiasco’ by returning to a decent level of activity in December.” I ran 21 parkrun 5k events this year, but most of those were simply part of the process of recovery from one injury or another. Certainly, none were PB attempts and the fastest, 19:23 at Dulwich in June, was a full 30 seconds outside my 5k PB. Outside parkrunning, I participated in only three events this year. The first two of these were also in June; a 3k team relay and a 10000m PB although the latter was more of a statistical anomaly than a notable performance. By July I was already injured when I participated in the Thunder Run 24 hour team relay which really was such a fiasco that I couldn’t bring myself to write a blog post.

Running in 2016 was only saved from being a complete fiasco by returning to a decent level of activity in December.

Consequently my targets for 2017 are unchanged from last year. In fact, I have removed the 50k target which I optimistically added last year as part of my #50at50 challenge. If I am unable to maintain marathon training this year long enough to line up at the Brighton Marathon in April I will likely acknowledge that the marathon is beyond my physiology and remove it too next year.

	2016 season				2017 season
event	opening PB	target	events	improvement	target
800m	2:25.9	2:19.9	—	—	2:19.9
1500m	5:18.2	4:49.9	—	—	4:49.9
mile	5:31.7	4:59.9	—	—	4:59.9
3000m	—	9:59.9	—	—	9:59.9
5000m	19:01.53	17:59.99	—	—	17:59.99
5k	18:53	17:59	21	—	17:59
5 mile	31:28	29:59	—	—	29:59
10000m	44:04	38:29.99	1	June 40:41.00	38:29.99
10k	39:04	38:29	—	—	38:29
10 mile	66:41	64:59	—	—	64:59
half marathon	86:29	84:59	—	—	84:59
marathon	—	3:09:59	—	—	3:09:59

PB review 2015 & targets for 2016

The running year that was 2015 came to a singularly disappointing end for me and was only saved from complete statistical ignominy by February’s half marathon PB at Brighton. Achilles tendonitis, though only diagnosed as such in July, affected my season from February and morphed seamlessly into prepatellar bursitis during September which then accompanied me joylessly to the end of the year. Although I ran ten parkrun 5k events this year only three of these were inside twenty minutes and, of those, I ran only two as PB attempts. Hindsight seems to suggest even those were limited by the then undiagnosed tendonitis. Consequently my targets barely require revision for 2016.

The running year that was 2015 came to a singularly disappointing end for me.

Nonetheless the presentation of data in tabular form always engenders inordinate inner joy and so I have indulged myself to the full. Compared to last year I have set targets in three additional disciplines. The 5000m and 10000m targets are prompted by my participation in a 5000m, in April at a Highgate Harriers open meeting, and my aspiration to run at Highgate Harriers night of the 10000m PBs respectively. Although I had already run once in each discipline, both in 2006, I hadn’t previously noted these PBs separately from my 5k and 10k times; primarily because they were slower than my times in those disciplines anyway. The two track disciplines should of course be faster than their road race twins – the times for a 50 year old male recording an 80% AG performance are:

• 5000m 18:01.80 / 5k 18:26.25 [ track just over 24 seconds faster ]
• 10000m 37:37.91 / 10k 38:22.50 [ track nearly 45 seconds faster ]

With these comparisons in mind the targets below for 5000m and 10000m are clearly much kinder than the existing targets for 5k and 10k retained from last year. Personally an 80% Age Grade remains a Holy Grail – most of my PBs equate to an AG of around 75% – and since my strongest times are in shorter events it is unlikely I will ever achieve an 80% AG at 5000m or 10000m. Similarly the targets below for marathon and 50k – the third new discipline – are even kinder; the times equate to Age Grades of 73.41% and 71.90% respectively.

	2015 season				2016 season
event	opening PB	target	events	improvement	target
800m	2:25.9	2:19.9	—	—	2:19.9
1500m	5:18.2	4:49.9	—	—	4:49.9
mile	5:31.7	4:59.9	—	—	4:59.9
3000m	—	9:59.9	—	—	9:59.9
5000m	20:27	—	1	April 19:01.53	17:59.99
5k	18:53	17:59	10	—	17:59
5 mile	31:28	29:59	—	—	29:59
10000m	44:04	—	—	—	38:29.99
10k	39:04	38:29	—	—	38:29
10 mile	66:41	64:59	—	—	64:59
half marathon	89:16	87:29	2	February 86:29	84:59
marathon	—	3:09:59	—	—	3:09:59
50k	—	—	—	—	3:54:59

Well, that is as much joy as I can realise from reflection on statistics alone. Here’s to a happier New Year with some actual running!

If … Age Grade Holy Grail revisited at 50

Shortly after my 49th birthday, I considered the times I would need to achieve to record an 80% AG at that time. Having completed my 50th year at the start of this month, and spurred on by a comment from runningest sister after last weekend’s Bromley parkrun, I have revised the times, again using the Running for Fitness calculator. The slightly easier targets, combined with several PB improvements since my original post, have moved the Holy Grail just a little closer. In some disciplines tantalisingly so …

event	80% AG time (male, 50 yrs)	current PB	improvement required	pace improvement required per km
800m	2:25	2:26	0:01	1s 3:03 – 3:02
1500m	4:54	5:18	0:24	16s 3:32 – 3:16
1 mile	5:18	5:32	0:14	8s 3:26 – 3:18
5k	18:26	18:53	0:27	6s 3:47 – 3:41
5 mile	30:29	31:28	0:59	8s 3:55 – 3:47
10k	38:23	39:04	0:41	4s 3:54 – 3:50
10 mile	63:00	66:41	3:41	14s 4:09 – 3:55
half marathon	83:41	86:29	2:48	8s 4:06 – 3:58
marathon	2:54:20	—	—	4:08

If, and that’s an important ‘if’, I can stay fit throughout my fiftieth year I hope to enter at least one event each of the disciplines above in a PB competitive state. The comments I made in my original post regarding how many of the disciplines I might achieve an 80% AG at still stand – essentially up to and including 5 miles at the most optimistic – so the addition of a marathon to the list is purely for interest. In any case I will approach these AG goals cautiously as I do not want to jeopardize my returning, and hopefully ongoing, fitness and hence my #50at50 challenge and in particular my first marathon and first ultramarathon within that.

All the same, it would be nice if I could record one.

A big ‘if’. Similar to an important ‘if’. Both being quite nice.

.

Fit for fifty

Suddenly my fiftieth birthday is less than a month away! I have been so busy being concerned about being injured that the day seems to have crept up on me. Recovery wise I am now feeling much better both physically and mentally. Yesterday I ran just over eleven kilometres – the furthest I have run since mid April – without incident and later had a physio appointment which also went well. As I type I am just home from swimming 800m and looking forward to my next run on Thursday when I plan to run a kilometre or so further than yesterday.

My fiftieth birthday also heralds the imminent start of my #50at50 calendar which, when I first thought of the idea back in January, was conceived as a joyful celebration of my fiftieth year and my running. Whilst my fitness does seem to be returning, from today’s perspective it looks a little less joyful and little more daunting. We shall see.

Understandably, the Cyclist has also expressed doubts about my abililty to participate in 50 events in a year and still be available for family life; not least because of the inclusion of both my first marathon and my first ultramarathon. We shall indeed, see!

PB review 2014 & targets for 2015

Ending 2014 on a high – running over 120 miles and recording a PB in each of the last three months of the year – the middle six months where I didn’t run a competitive event now seem a long time ago. My primary PB focus this year was intended to be on distances of 5k and shorter, but that failed to materialise due to injury*.

Ending 2014 on a high – running over 120 miles and recording a PB in each of the last three months of the year.

One positive of being sidelined was that I took time to focus on weight management and successfully reduced my weight from around 73kg and rising, at the end of March, to around 67kg and stable since June. I am certain that my reduced weight has been a significant factor in the subsequent PB improvements I have made, although I’ve yet to realise all the hypothetical potential I calculated when considering my Stillman running weight.

Around 67kg and relatively stable since June this year, I am certain that my reduced weight has been a significant factor in the subsequent PB improvements I have made.

To minimise the risk of further injury during my extended recovery period, I chose to focus on restoring strength and endurance at the expense of absolute speed and so reverted to historical type and ran exclusively longer distance events. Hence the only targets I’ve needed to revise this year are those at 10k and above. The marathon I’ve only included for fun since my first marathon isn’t due until twenty sixteen anyway.

	2014 season				2015 season
event	opening PB	target	events	improvement	target
800m	2:25.9	2:19.9	—	—	2:19.9
1500m	5:18.2	4:49.9	1	—	4:49.9
mile	—	4:59.9	1	March 5:31.7	4:59.9
3000m	—	9:59.9	—	—	9:59.9
5k	18:58	17:59	13	March 18:55 October 18:53	17:59
5 mile	31:36	29:59	1	December 31:28	29:59
10k	39:33	38:59	2	November 39:04	38:29
10 mile	—	67:53	1	March 66:41	64:59
half marathon	89:53	88:59	1	March 88:16	87:29
marathon	—	—	—	—	3:09:59

Whilst the right hand column is optimistically labelled “2015 season target” I’m curious to discover if any of these ever need revising again; it may be that it could more accurately be labelled “lifetime target”. In any event, whether I can achieve these targets or not, I am hopeful that I have at least two or three more seasons where I’ll be able to improve my PBs in as broad a range of distances as I have in the last two. With an eye on 2016’s marathon I shall be doing everything I can to stay injury free next year and hope that this will enable me to run a similar number of events as I did in 2013. If this in turn results in PB achievements as extensive as either 2014 or 2013 I’ll be very satisfied indeed.

I’m hopeful that I have at least two or three more seasons where I’ll be able to record PBs across a broad range of distances as I have in the last two years.

Here’s to a Happy New Running Year. And a good one in all aspects of life for that matter! 🙂

* I have agreed with myself to stop linking back to the posts I made at the time, but am making a final exception as I say farewell to 2014 and re-spraining my right ankle back in March.

Age Grade Holy Grail

I’ve occasionally suggested that if I had to have a religion I’d be most likely to choose numerology*; I find the statistics relating to almost any subject interesting and strangely attractive. I particularly enjoy the way that values which are intrinsically arbitrary acquire quasi-mythical status as ‘significant barriers’. Was the first sub four minute mile really any more remarkable than the first under 4:01? Or 3:59? Is there any compelling reason for the Queen to commemorate the 100th birthday of one of her nominal subjects as opposed to their 99th or 110th? Did Usain Bolt feel underwhelmed when becoming the first human to run 100m in under 9.8, and then 9.7, seconds relative to Jim Hines’ elation at breaking the 10 second barrier?

A friend recently mentioned that for some golfers the Holy Grail is to score their age in a round. Though I would think its application is limited to those of around age 70 and older I like the way that works; as the player ages so they are allowed one additional shot per round, whilst at the same time their strength and driving range decreases so maintaining the difficulty. For runners Age Grading (AG) has no such limitations. After completing my second 800m in 2:25.9, an AG of 78.32% as a 48 year old last year, I first considered the possibility that I might be able to run an 80% AG.

Having just celebrated my 49th AG day, I have used the Running for Fitness calculator to calculate 80% AG times for all my event distances for a male at age 49. In absolute terms an 80% AG time is now just a little closer than it was before my birthday and I’m hoping that since I’m still an improving runner (all my PBs were set in the last 11 months) the Holy Grail of an 80% AG performance** is now within reach.

event	80% AG time (MALE, 49 yrs)	current PB	improvement required	pace improvement required per km
800m	2:24	2:26	0:02	3s 3:03 – 3:00
1500m	4:52	5:18	0:26	18s 3:32 – 3:14
1 mile	5:16	5:32	0:16	10s 3:26 – 3:16
5k	18:18	18:55	0:37	7s 3:47 – 3:40
5 mile	30:15	31:36	1:21	10s 3:56 – 3:46
10k	38:04	39:33	1:29	9s 3:57 – 3:48
10 mile	62:29	66:41	4:12	16s 4:09 – 3:53
half marathon	82:59	88:16	5:17	15s 4:11 – 3:56

I can’t help but wonder in how many disciplines I could reach the Holy Grail? I’m confident that 800m is achievable given how close I’ve come already with no specific preparation. Despite currently being 18 seconds per kilometre off pace over 1500m I think that both it and the mile are achievable too. My current 1500m PB is something of an anomaly since of the three times I’ve raced the distance two were within 15 minutes of an 800m race and the third I was the lone entrant. It did feel good to finish first for a change.

Beyond that it’s going to get hard. Very hard. My targets for this year include times for 5k and 5 miles that slightly exceed an 80% AG; I was definitely in an optimistic frame of mind when I wrote those! I do think 5 miles is the upper distance limit though …

* My personal sect – established circa 2004, number of known adherents 1 (though I think it is highly likely the Queen is also a believer) – celebrates numbers for their innate appeal; there is no supernatural element.

** You might like to read the successor to this post where I reconsider this goal one year on.

Stillman running weight

I first came across the Stillman running weight formula sometime in 2012 although I can no longer find the particularly thorough article in which I first read about it. The formula presumably comes from the pre internet age as I can only find it referred to indirectly online and even then some articles* appear to have been published offline before appearing online.

The formula reflects the simple observation that elite runners are typically lighter than non-runners (of healthy weight) and that as the event distance increases so the athlete tends to be proportionally even lighter. Whether there was any physiological justification of the formula is not clear from the articles I’ve seen; it may be that Dr Stillman derived the formula mathematically to best model the weight of elite runners at the various event distances. I’m writing about the formula not to prescribe a particular running weight as “right”, but purely because I’ve used it to set a personal running weight goal and found using it interesting.

The formula uses imperial units for both weight and height and though I’ve seen the formula re-expressed to use metric units I’ve found it simpler to convert my metric height to feet and inches via Google and subsequently convert the imperial weight value produced to kilogrammes. If imperial units meet all your needs it’s a calculation that can easily be done mentally.

The formula can be expressed concisely in two steps:

Calculate a base value for a healthy, non-active individual by adding 5½ lbs (male) or 5lbs (female) for every inch in height over 5 feet to 110lbs (male) or 100lbs (female).

Modify the base value reducing it by a percentage dictated by event type; sprinters 2½%, hurdlers 6%, middle distance runners 12% and long distance runners 15%.

In my case, a five foot ten inch male, the base value is calculated as:

10 x 5.5 + 110 = 165 lbs = 11 stone 11 lbs = 74.8kg

And modified as below for each event type. [Note  the additional information on what constitutes a sprinter, hurdler etc.]

event type		reduction	weight		BMI
non-active		–	11 stone 11 lbs	74.8kg	23.7
sprinter	(100m – 400m)	2½%	11 stone 7 lbs	73.0kg	23.1
hurdler	(100m – 400m)	6%	11 stone 1 lb	70.4kg	22.3
middle-distance	(800m – 10K)	12%	10 stone 5 lbs	65.9kg	20.8
long-distance	(10 miles plus)	15%	10 stone 0 lbs	63.6kg	20.1

I spent some time considering my racing weight in the context of the formula during early and mid 2012 and in the process decided I was most definitely a middle distance, not a long distance, runner. That is quite likely the case as subsequent performances over 800m, 1500m and one mile would appear to confirm, but at the time it was more in the harsh light of the results produced by the formula. When I first completed the calculation, the goal weight for even a middle distance runner seemed to border on the impossible; I had come close to 70kg / 11st as an adult, but only momentarily. Nonetheless by the time I set my running targets for 2013 I had fixed my goal at 66kg / 10st 5lbs / BMI 20.8.

By August 2012 I had come close to 70kg / 11st as an adult, but only momentarily.

Writing now, within 2kg of my goal weight, it doesn’t seem extreme to any degree; it’s remarkable what a change of position does for perspective. I’ve read that every pound of excess weight lost can be expected to produce a two seconds per mile increase in pace …

event	PB	weight at PB	hypothetical PB at 66.0kg
800m	2:25.9	71.6kg	2:13.6
1500m	5:18.2	71.2kg	4:56.8
1 mile	5:31.7	73.7kg	5:08.8
5k	18:55	73.5kg	17:13
5 mile	31:36	71.5kg	29:35
10k	39:33	71.6kg	37:00
10 mile	66:41	71.3kg	62:48
half marathon	88:16	73.2kg	81:20

There are some pretty exciting numbers there! I’m looking forward to achieving my goal weight, returning to full fitness after my recent ankle sprain and then rigorously testing out my new physique to see just how much difference it makes.

* See articles at Serpentine and Horwich RMI Harriers club sites.

First marathon, first steps

I’ve finally decided to run my first marathon. I’m tempted to write that I’ve finally succumbed to the pressure to run one, but I know it’s my own decision and one that I’m fully committed to. There are external influences though; my sister started running after I did, ran her first half marathon in the same race as I did and has gone on to run marathons and ultra marathons. Also I’m aware that for many non runners only a marathon performance has cultural weight; many non runners are aware of the ‘sub 4 hour’ marathon barrier, but have no equivalent feeling for what makes a good 10k or 5k time. I doubt whether my best marathon time will be as good as my performances over 10k and shorter, but I am keen to record a performance that will register with my non running friends and, in particular, family.

All the same, my main reasons for running a marathon are my own; it’s the one event where completion is a real challenge, my longest run to date is no more than a mile over the half marathon distance and despite being an established runner I do feel some trepidation, not to run a particular time, but rather the mental challenge of running for so long. My most difficult races mentally have been half marathons.

I have, of course, spent some time considering my target time. My half marathon PB currently stands at 88:16 which suggests a time close to 3:05 is possible. (The two guides I have come across to estimate marathon time from half marathon time are ‘multiply by 2 and add 10 minutes’ and ‘multiply by 2.1’ which produce 3:06:32 and 3:05:22 respectively.) Having said that my feeling at this stage is that my main target will be sub 3:20 (not coincidentally also the Virgin London Marathon good for age time for my projected age) with anything below 3:15 being cause for celebration. If I ran something close to the projected 3:05 I would be ecstatic and, on the other hand, would consider anything slower than 3:29:59 a disappointment.

So, my first marathon is on the horizon. You may have to squint a little to make it out though; having made the decision to run I’ve decided on Brighton 2016 2017* for my debut. Most significantly this is because in the preceding Autumn my youngest daughter will start school giving me the time and energy to commit to the training that winter. Also I’ll be 50 in that same season and it seems like a good milestone at which to run my first marathon. I’m also planning to have earned my parkrun 50 t-shirt during 2015 and intend to use that on race day if the material is light enough. If I had to pick a religion numerology would seem to be as good as any. 😉

* [Deferred one year due to an injury affected 2015 and early 2016, read my post “Zero” – the total mileage I ran in November and December 2015 – and subsequent posts if you want to wallow with me retrospectively.]

Weighting too long … [5:2 diet, chapter 3]

One problem with keeping a post in draft too long, aside from thoughtlessly keeping my adoring public waiting, is that the whole tone of the piece may need to change as circumstances unfold. This post for example was set to be an entirely positive update at the end of my fifth week using the Fast Diet (5:2 diet). A further week in draft and I have another binge eating episode to record. I’m not going to detail the crime scene as I did in my last post, but several gingerbread men, assorted nuts and raisins and two small golden rabbits were involved. Oh well.

Weighing in last week at 69.3kg I had achieved my short term goal by reaching 70kg / 11 stone by the end of April. Even with this week’s lapse I remain inside that threshold at 69.9kg. When first calculating my goal running weight I rationalised that whilst 66kg was potentially the optimum for running performance I wanted to stay at or under 70kg at all times. Having now achieved that for the first time I want to maintain it.

The 5:2 pattern, fasting for 2 days and eating normally for the other 5, has become part of the rhythm of life and I find myself genuinely looking forward to my fast days every Tuesday and Friday. I notice the taste of my food and savour it more, particularly the food eaten on fast days and breakfast the following morning, but also at other times. It seems that the fast days continually re-calibrate my appetite both in terms of restraining my physical appetite and increasing my conscious consideration of food. My habit of binge eating is quite separate and I’ve gained awareness and some control just by blogging about it.

I now think that retaining the 5:2 pattern permanently, beyond my immediate desire to lose further weight to achieve my goal running weight, is not such a strange proposition after all. This is what is proposed in the Fast Diet book since there is evidence that intermittent fasting produces health benefits aside from its effectiveness in weight management. For the last few weeks my typical fast day nutrition has been as described below. I changed from the porridge and poached egg that I had typically eaten for the first two weeks since it included no fruit or vegetables and, given that I’ve not been running either, was leaving me feeling distinctly lethargic. Yes, that’s a euphemism.

typical fast day nutrition
cereal: 30g bran flakes, 15g all bran, 35g porridge oats, 165g semi skimmed milk
energy: 110 + 50 + 133 + 81 = 374 calories

tuna salad: 139g tuna, 10g olive oil, chinese leaf, spinach, cherry tomatoes
energy: 138 + 88 = 226 calories (+ salad)

one white coffee: 1g instant coffee, 20ml semi-skimmed milk, 5g brown sugar
energy: 2 + 10 + 19 = 31 calories

TOTAL: 621 calories (+ salad)

Weight change from 25 March 2014 to date achieved using Fast Diet approach as modified by two episodes of binge eating.

Here’s to maintaining my sub 70kg weight.